Corinthians in the relegation zone: three wins needed in six games
The 32nd round ended with Corinthians in the Z4: their risk of going down rose from 43.1% to 62.3%, and six rounds remain. The club have fewer points than the 38 of 2007 and can reach 51 at most; finishing on 42 gives a 67.2% chance of staying up, which requires three wins in six games.
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A 32ª rodada terminou com o Corinthians dentro do Z4. A virada sofrida para o Vasco empurrou o risco de queda de 43,1% para 62,3%, e agora são seis rodadas para fugir da Série B.
Hoje o Timão soma menos que em 2007 — o único rebaixamento da história do clube —, quando chegou a 38 pontos em 32 jogos e caiu mesmo assim.
A conta do clube pode chegar, no máximo, a 51 pontos. Se o corte ficar abaixo dos tradicionais 45, há um caminho: projeções da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais apontam 67,2% de chance de permanência para quem fechar com 42. Para o Corinthians, são nove pontos a mais: três vitórias em seis jogos.
Chegar aos 45 exigiria 12 pontos, aproveitamento de 66,7% no trecho final. O momento, porém, é ruim: a série é de dez rodadas sem triunfo (nove derrotas, um empate), com apenas um ponto somado em 30 em disputa.
O calendário reserva confrontos diretos e um clássico. Na sexta-feira (30), o Mirassol visita a Neo Química Arena; uma vitória deixaria o Timão um ponto atrás do Leão, hoje 15º. Depois vem o São Paulo, em 4 de novembro.
Depois vêm Botafogo (casa), Atlético-MG (fora), Grêmio (casa) e Remo (fora); o time gaúcho é rival direto e vem imediatamente atrás do Corinthians, dois pontos atrás — mas tem um jogo a menos na rodada: visita o Coritiba nesta segunda (26), às 19h30.
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